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Www Mortgagereductionmortage Tag Stewie Griffin Mortgage Reduction Mortage 金融危机的发展——对澳大利亚经济的影响 - 国际银行业要闻 - 中国银行业协会
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这当然也令澳大利亚的国际环境发生了巨大改变。一方面，我们的进出口比价在过去五年间增长了65%，但很可能明年最多将下降20%。但进出口比价仍然处于历史高点，而几大重要商品价格也在大幅下滑后在过去的两个月间企稳。从这些层面看，大型采矿公司仍将有较强盈利。但2008年中期的市场信心已经演变成更为冷静的市场展望，至少在近期如此。国际方面，可利用的风险资本也出现萎缩趋势。
本地企业也预见到了未来的艰难形势。企业信心指数严重降低。公司较快地改变了经营战略，以保存现金、偿还债务并降低成本。同时，企业的信贷环境也面临挑战。投资计划在去年中期非常繁荣，而现在也迅速收缩，这也是一个例证。
家庭方面也受到财富严重损失的影响，尤其是在去年下半年。可想而知，家庭更倾向于储蓄，而且很多家庭也努力降低债务水平。因此，在最近几个月中，澳大利亚的消费者信心指标与消费者支出比其他许多国家都要稳定。
半年前，我们判断澳大利亚正在经历经济下滑，其严重程度将与2001年类似，而通胀水平也将逐渐降低。如果没有发生9月与10月的一连串事件，这种预期依然合理。然而，金融动荡与其带来的实体经济影响都在很大程度上改变了全球的风险格局与澳大利亚经济。董事会迅速做出判断，逐步放宽货币政策在半年前似乎只是预期，而现在应该加速推进。这将大幅降低现钞汇率。八月以来，汇率共降低了400个基点——这是澳大利亚历史上最迅速的政策放宽——清晰地传达出扩张性的货币政策。政府也在斟酌放宽财政政策，汇率也明显降低。
国际经济形势的恶化非常迅速，没有任何政策反应能够阻止澳大利亚经济在短期走弱。我们正在经受着全球经济下滑的影响，因此期望2009年上半年经济走强也并不现实。但大幅降低利率、降低汇率以及重大的财政措施都将拉动需求，而且效果将越来越明显。通胀可能继续保持四季度以来的减缓趋势，并在未来半年逐渐加速。
与最近经历的增长相比，这一短期预期并不乐观。但如果实际结果能与之接近，与其他国家相比澳大利亚也做得不错了。我们一直宣称，澳大利亚比其他国家更有优势战胜国际困难形势。近几月，随着经济增长放缓，信贷标准似乎进一步紧缩，银行也不可避免地面临更多坏帐。但我们的主要金融机构仍然处于良好状态，有足够的信贷与债券市场资源，保持盈利，而且随时准备向优质项目提供资金支持。我们的房地产业并未出现过度开发；相反，需求量仍然较大，而公众的负担能力也在迅速提高。大多数产业也未出现过热。在此情况下，我们宏观经济刺激政策的运用空间比大多数国家都广——而这一空间也得到了充分利用。此外，我们的传导途径也仍然有效：当现钞汇率下降时，借款人支付的利息率也相应下降。在英美两国，在央行降低了指导利率的同时，抵押贷款率并未下降，因此利差也相应增长。直到最近，英国和美国的抵押贷款率才开始下降。
因此，我们完全有理由相信澳大利亚经济将会度过这一困难时期——当然不会毫发无伤，但仍然能够从复苏繁荣之中受益。明年的形势将非常困难。但正如我所说的，澳大利亚长期经济趋势将不会像我们目前感觉的一样恶化。例如，中国的振兴尚未结束。我们不应忽略这一点或其他正面因素。我们可以保持对长远未来的信心，而且我们也有能力适应不断变化的环境。只要我们保持这种能力，经济下滑就没有理由加剧。
当然，董事会也在不断评估我们的政策立场是否能够保持与通胀率目标相一致的持久繁荣。在全球经济下滑与国内风险趋避行为的预期下，我们已经放宽了政策。虽然其效果尚未在许多数据中显现，但全国各地的企业已经感受到了其影响。政策调整的效果才刚刚开始显现。
因此，在未来几个月评估信息时，我们的任务在于区分哪些信息确认了我们已经预测到并作出反应的趋势，哪些为我们带来中期需求前景的新信息。然而，我们的目标并未改变——可持续增长与低通胀。
也许在目前ATM相关规则亟需改变的环境下，我应该谈一下支付问题。新的ATM规则旨在去除现有制度中的一些不合理因素。其中最为突出的包括：当不通银行的客户使对方的ATM机时，银行之间需支付一定费用——“互换费”，而这一费用并不透明，且与成本的关系也不明晰；客户使用非开户行的ATM机时也需支付相关费用——即所谓的“跨行”费，而这一费用的相关信息并未得到充分披露；独立ATM机（澳大利亚约半数ATM机为独立ATM机）所有人的收入流也仅限于银行支付的交换费，而银行与此类机构当然存在竞争；市场准入也非常严格，这也有可能限制竞争。
新的规则将取消互换费。ATM机所有者将可以直接向客户收取ATM机使用费，但必须在交易之前进行信息披露。银行很可能继续为客户提供免费取款服务，因为银行预计可通过客户整体关系收入覆盖这一成本。使用他行ATM机也有可能需缴纳一定费用，以覆盖相关成本。但对持卡人开户行来讲，使用“他行”ATM机的成本只是电子交易处理成本——最多不过10分澳元而已。因此我们认为，收取“跨行”费的依据并不充分。独立ATM机所有者将收取机具使用费，但这将有助于激励此类机构扩大网络。否则，独立ATM机构很可能逐渐减少，从而缩小消费者的选择余地，并降低市场竞争。系统接入也将制定管理规定，制定接入价格上限，避免有接入权限的市场参与者通过收取过高的接入费等不正当手段阻止新竞争者进入市场。
这些变化的核心非常简单。ATM机使用费用始终需要支付，只是方式方法不同而已。ATM机运营成本的确存在，而这一成本也需要通过某种途径覆盖。即使不进行明确收费，金融机构也在通过各种渠道覆盖这部分成本。金融机构是不提供免费服务的。
现在，人们将清楚地了解ATM交易的价格，并在完成交易前就被告知这一信息。今后将不会存在任何形式的“跨行”费用。而允许独立ATM所有者继续存在，并降低新竞争者的准入门槛，将有利于保持市场竞争。我们认为，这是对过去相关规则的改进，而且是长期控制成本的最佳途径。
现在，我和我的同事准备回答您的问题。
（英文文章来源：《国际清算银行评论》2009年第21期；本文由中国银行业协会国际部翻译）
Glenn Stevens: Financial crisis developments – impact on the Australian economy
Opening statement by Mr Glenn Stevens, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Canberra, 20 February 2009.
Mr Chairman, thank you for the opportunity to meet again with the House Economics Committee.
Shortly after the Committee last met, the global financial system took a serious turn for the worse. On 15 September 2008, the American firm Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. It was the biggest actual failure of a major American financial institution for many years. While it had been widely known that Lehmans was under immense pressure, when it came the event was still a shock. It triggered a massive re-appraisal of risk, and ushered in a period of the most intense financial turmoil seen in decades.
The worst of the turmoil was actually fairly short-lived – a matter of weeks. But in that time a number of events occurred that have had a significant bearing on the outlook for the global economy. These included the incipient failure and/or public support of a number of major financial institutions in the United States, the United Kingdom and continental Europe, effective closure of many important capital markets and a worldwide decline in equity values of a quarter, leaving them around 50 per cent lower than their peak.
I believe that the extraordinary actions of governments and central banks in that period – in supporting key institutions, supplying huge quantities of liquidity and offering guarantees on various obligations of banks – helped to stabilise what could have been a catastrophic loss of confidence in the global financial system. This remains a work in progress, and sentiment in financial markets remains fragile. Nonetheless, since October we have seen term spreads in money markets decline (back towards the pre-Lehman, though still elevated, levels). We have seen long-term markets re-open to banks (by virtue of the guarantees), public confidence in the security of the banking system maintained and the exceptional volatility abate somewhat.
Inevitably, however, the turmoil of September and October took a large toll on household and business confidence around the world. Observing those events in real time, people everywhere understandably became much more cautious. We are now seeing the effects. Consumers have pulled back their discretionary spending sharply, are more inclined to save and are looking to repay debt. Businesses have seen the fall in demand, and have responded very quickly to cut production and costs, as well as putting on hold plans for expansion. Nowhere is this more evident than in the automobile sector, where global demand has fallen by around 20 per cent since August and production has declined equally sharply. Global trade has fallen away, driven by these trends in demand and also a significant disruption in trade finance.
For many of the world’s largest economies, the contraction in output in the last quarter of 2008 was the sharpest in decades. Nor is the weakness confined to the major economies. Emerging economies around the world, relatively little affected by the problems in the major economies until September, are now suffering the effects of both the weaker demand in the developed world and the shock to domestic demand as their own citizens respond in the same way to the financial turmoil. Many indicators for Asian economies stepped down abruptly in the last few months of 2008. China’s economy recorded little GDP growth in the last quarter, and industrial production declined for several months. There are some tentative indications of a turn for the better in China in some of the most recent data, though it is too soon to know yet whether this will continue.
It is all this news that bodies such as the IMF have factored into their growth forecasts for 2009, which put global GDP growth at just half of 1 per cent, which would be a very weak outcome. As recently as October, the forecast was 3 per cent.
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